000070330 001__ 70330
000070330 005__ 20200729203741.0
000070330 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.1073/pnas.1720606115
000070330 0248_ $$2sideral$$a105911
000070330 037__ $$aART-2018-105911
000070330 041__ $$aeng
000070330 100__ $$0(orcid)0000-0003-3259-0933$$aArregui, S.$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000070330 245__ $$aData-driven model for the assessment of mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission in evolving demographic structures
000070330 260__ $$c2018
000070330 5060_ $$aAccess copy available to the general public$$fUnrestricted
000070330 5203_ $$aIn the case of tuberculosis (TB), the capabilities of epidemic models to produce quantitatively robust forecasts are limited by multiple hindrances. Among these, understanding the complex relationship between disease epidemiology and populations’ age structure has been highlighted as one of the most relevant. TB dynamics depends on age in multiple ways, some of which are traditionally simplified in the literature. That is the case of the heterogeneities in contact intensity among different age strata that are common to all airborne diseases, but still typically neglected in the TB case. Furthermore, while demographic structures of many countries are rapidly aging, demographic dynamics are pervasively ignored when modeling TB spreading. In this work, we present a TB transmission model that incorporates country-specific demographic prospects and empirical contact data around a data-driven description of TB dynamics. Using our model, we find that the inclusion of demographic dynamics is followed by an increase in the burden levels predicted for the next decades in the areas of the world that are most hit by the disease today. Similarly, we show that considering realistic patterns of contacts among individuals in different age strata reshapes the transmission patterns reproduced by the models, a result with potential implications for the design of age-focused epidemiological interventions.
000070330 536__ $$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MINECO/FIS2014-55867-P$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MINECO/BIO2014-52580P$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/ISCIII/FIS/PI15-0317$$9This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No H2020 643381-TBVAC2020$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/643381/EU/TBVAC2020; Advancing novel and promising TB vaccine candidates from discovery to preclinical and early clinical development/TBVAC2020$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/317532/EU/Foundational Research on MULTIlevel comPLEX networks and systems/MULTIPLEX
000070330 540__ $$9info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess$$aby-nc-nd$$uhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
000070330 590__ $$a9.58$$b2018
000070330 591__ $$aMULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES$$b7 / 69 = 0.101$$c2018$$dQ1$$eT1
000070330 592__ $$a5.601$$b2018
000070330 593__ $$aMultidisciplinary$$c2018$$dQ1
000070330 655_4 $$ainfo:eu-repo/semantics/article$$vinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
000070330 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0003-2266-8602$$aIglesias, M.J.$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000070330 700__ $$aSamper, S.
000070330 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0001-8644-120X$$aMarinova, D.$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000070330 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0003-2993-5478$$aMartin, C.$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000070330 700__ $$aSanz, J.
000070330 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-0895-1893$$aMoreno, Y.$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000070330 7102_ $$11008$$2630$$aUniversidad de Zaragoza$$bDpto. Microb.Med.Pr.,Sal.Públ.$$cÁrea Microbiología
000070330 7102_ $$11008$$2X$$aUniversidad de Zaragoza$$bDpto. Microb.Med.Pr.,Sal.Públ.$$cProy. investigación HQA
000070330 7102_ $$12004$$2405$$aUniversidad de Zaragoza$$bDpto. Física Teórica$$cÁrea Física Teórica
000070330 7102_ $$11008$$2615$$aUniversidad de Zaragoza$$bDpto. Microb.Med.Pr.,Sal.Públ.$$cÁrea Medic.Prevent.Salud Públ.
000070330 773__ $$g115, 14 (2018), E3238-E3245$$pProc. Natl. Acad. Sci.$$tProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences$$x0027-8424
000070330 8564_ $$s1295126$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/70330/files/texto_completo.pdf$$yVersión publicada
000070330 8564_ $$s144093$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/70330/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon$$xicon$$yVersión publicada
000070330 909CO $$ooai:zaguan.unizar.es:70330$$particulos$$pdriver
000070330 951__ $$a2020-07-29-20:20:04
000070330 980__ $$aARTICLE