000061937 001__ 61937
000061937 005__ 20200221144220.0
000061937 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.1007/s11069-016-2533-4
000061937 0248_ $$2sideral$$a96374
000061937 037__ $$aART-2016-96374
000061937 041__ $$aeng
000061937 100__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-0477-0796$$aRodrigues Mimbrero, Marcos$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000061937 245__ $$aAnalysis of recent spatial–temporal evolution of human driving factors of wildfires in Spain
000061937 260__ $$c2016
000061937 5060_ $$aAccess copy available to the general public$$fUnrestricted
000061937 5203_ $$aFire regimes are strongly dependent on human activities. Understanding the relative influence of human factors on wildfire is an important ongoing task especially in human-dominated landscapes such as the Mediterranean, where anthropogenic ignitions greatly surpass natural ignitions and human activities are modifying historical fire regimes. Most human drivers of wildfires have a temporal dimension, far beyond the appearance of change, and it is for this reason that we require an historical/temporal analytical perspective coupled to the spatial dimension. In this paper, we investigate and analyze spatial–temporal changes in the contribution of major human factors influencing forest fire occurrence, using Spanish historical statistical fire data from 1988 to 2012. We hypothesize that the influence of socioeconomic drivers on wildfires has changed over this period. Our method is based on fitting yearly explanatory regression models—testing several scenarios of wildfire data aggregation—using logit and Poisson generalized linear models to determine the significance thresholds of the covariates. We then conduct a trend analysis using the Mann–Kendall test to calculate and analyze possible trends in the explanatory power of human driving factors of wildfires. Finally, Geographically Weighted Regression Models are explored to examine potential spatial–temporal patterns. Our results suggest that some of the explanatory factors of logistic models do vary over time and that new explanatory factors might be considered (such as arson-related variables or climate factors), since some of the traditional ones seem to be losing significance in the presence–absence models, opposite to fire frequency models. In particular, the wildland–agricultural interface and wildland–urban interface appear to be losing explanatory power regarding ignition probability, and protected areas are becoming less significant in fire frequency models. GWR models revealed that this temporal behavior is not stationary neither over space nor time.
000061937 536__ $$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MEC/FPU13-06618
000061937 540__ $$9info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess$$aAll rights reserved$$uhttp://www.europeana.eu/rights/rr-f/
000061937 590__ $$a1.833$$b2016
000061937 591__ $$aGEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY$$b91 / 188 = 0.484$$c2016$$dQ2$$eT2
000061937 591__ $$aWATER RESOURCES$$b33 / 88 = 0.375$$c2016$$dQ2$$eT2
000061937 591__ $$aMETEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES$$b42 / 84 = 0.5$$c2016$$dQ2$$eT2
000061937 592__ $$a0.798$$b2016
000061937 593__ $$aEarth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)$$c2016$$dQ1
000061937 593__ $$aWater Science and Technology$$c2016$$dQ1
000061937 593__ $$aAtmospheric Science$$c2016$$dQ2
000061937 655_4 $$ainfo:eu-repo/semantics/article$$vinfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion
000061937 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0001-7397-1818$$aJiménez-Ruano, Adrián$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000061937 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0003-2615-270X$$aRiva Fernández, Juan de la$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000061937 7102_ $$13006$$2010$$aUniversidad de Zaragoza$$bDpto. Geograf. Ordenac.Territ.$$cÁrea Análisis Geográfico Regi.
000061937 773__ $$g84, 3 (2016), [20 pp.]$$pNat. hazards$$tNATURAL HAZARDS$$x0921-030X
000061937 8564_ $$s1409212$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/61937/files/texto_completo.pdf$$yPostprint
000061937 8564_ $$s72915$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/61937/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon$$xicon$$yPostprint
000061937 909CO $$ooai:zaguan.unizar.es:61937$$particulos$$pdriver
000061937 951__ $$a2020-02-21-13:14:19
000061937 980__ $$aARTICLE