000061310 001__ 61310
000061310 005__ 20190709135527.0
000061310 0247_ $$2doi$$a10.1098/rsos.160914
000061310 0248_ $$2sideral$$a98423
000061310 037__ $$aART-2017-98423
000061310 041__ $$aeng
000061310 100__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-1192-8707$$aAleta, Alberto$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000061310 245__ $$aHuman mobility networks and persistence of rapidly mutating pathogens
000061310 260__ $$c2017
000061310 5060_ $$aAccess copy available to the general public$$fUnrestricted
000061310 5203_ $$aRapidly mutating pathogens may be able to persist in the population and reach an endemic equilibrium by escaping hosts’ acquired immunity. For such diseases, multiple biological, environmental and population-level mechanisms determine the dynamics of the outbreak, including pathogen’s epidemiological traits (e.g. transmissibility, infectious period and duration of immunity), seasonality, interaction with other circulating strains and hosts’ mixing and spatial fragmentation. Here, we study a susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible model on a metapopulation where individuals are distributed in sub-populations connected via a network of mobility flows. Through extensive numerical simulations, we explore the phase space of pathogen’s persistence and map the dynamical regimes of the pathogen following emergence. Our results show that spatial fragmentation and mobility play a key role in the persistence of the disease whose maximum is reached at intermediate mobility values. We describe the occurrence of different phenomena including local extinction and emergence of epidemic waves, and assess the conditions for large-scale spreading. Findings are highlighted in reference to previous studies and to real scenarios. Our work uncovers the crucial role of hosts’ mobility on the ecological dynamics of rapidly mutating pathogens, opening the path for further studies on disease ecology in the presence of a complex and heterogeneous environment.
000061310 536__ $$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/MINECO/FIS2014-55867-P$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/317532/EU/Foundational Research on MULTIlevel comPLEX networks and systems/MULTIPLEX$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/278433/EU/Preparedness, Prediction and Prevention of Emerging Zoonotic Viruses with Pandemic Potential using Multidisciplinary Approaches/PREDEMICS$$9info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/ES/DGA/FENOL-GROUP
000061310 540__ $$9info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess$$aby$$uhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/
000061310 590__ $$a2.504$$b2017
000061310 591__ $$aMULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES$$b17 / 64 = 0.266$$c2017$$dQ2$$eT1
000061310 592__ $$a1.237$$b2017
000061310 593__ $$aMultidisciplinary$$c2017$$dQ1
000061310 655_4 $$ainfo:eu-repo/semantics/article$$vinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
000061310 700__ $$aHisi, Andreia N. S.
000061310 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0001-6202-3302$$aMeloni, Sandro$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000061310 700__ $$aPoletto, Chiara
000061310 700__ $$aColizza, Vittoria
000061310 700__ $$0(orcid)0000-0002-0895-1893$$aMoreno, Yamir$$uUniversidad de Zaragoza
000061310 7102_ $$12004$$2405$$aUniversidad de Zaragoza$$bDpto. Física Teórica$$cÁrea Física Teórica
000061310 773__ $$g4, 3 (2017), 160914 [15 pp.]$$pR. Soc. open sci.$$tRoyal Society Open Science$$x2054-5703
000061310 8564_ $$s1113748$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/61310/files/texto_completo.pdf$$yVersión publicada
000061310 8564_ $$s75824$$uhttps://zaguan.unizar.es/record/61310/files/texto_completo.jpg?subformat=icon$$xicon$$yVersión publicada
000061310 909CO $$ooai:zaguan.unizar.es:61310$$particulos$$pdriver
000061310 951__ $$a2019-07-09-12:00:28
000061310 980__ $$aARTICLE